Army moved to Conference USA shortly after posting a 10-2 record as an independent. But Army had been mostly a .500 program against middling competition for the decade prior, frequently playing three or even four I-AA opponents and few high caliber I-A programs.

Navy is entering a conference as a relative peer. Navy's schedule is not the strongest, but it has played many American programs or programs on that level. So there is reason to believe Navy will compete, at least for a while.

There is a material difference jumping up to a P5 conference; even the ACC, which has the weakest football of the five. It is a big step up to go from playing one to three opponents with large, physical kids up front to playing seven to nine. It is harder to compete and easier to get worn down as encounters with greater size and talent increase. And unlike TCU, for example, Navy does not figure to significantly improve its recruiting after moving to a higher level of play. For TCU, joining the Big 12 was a bonanza for what had already been a very good program. Now TCU was able to sell the prospect of playing big time football without leaving the Dallas-Fort Worth area.

I think Navy is great. I strongly considered attending the Academy and was well down the path to an appointment before getting out. But Navy has natural limitations. And I just don't think it is wise to bring a program with unique limitations into the ACC. God bless Wake Forest, but would anyone take Wake Forest today if it was on the outside looking in (putting aside the issue of having four schools in North Carolina)?

The ACC does not need more Wake Forests, Boston Colleges or Syracuses. The ACC does not need a part-time Notre Dame. If Mark Richt can't turn around Miami, I'm not sure Miami is coming back to anything close to what we remember.

All the talk is about conference expansion. I think the future is going to repeat history, where mega conferences splinter and form leagues of 8 to 10 members. It will take a while, and it may start as one conference with two 8 team divisions. But it will happen someday.